Nuggets-Timberwolves preview: can titanic Wolves' defense deter Jokic?

The supersized Timberwolves and their ravenous young superstar pose Denver its toughest challenge yet.

BY JACKSON BOAKE

The irresistible force paradox is a classic thought experiment exploring the conflict of two seemingly contradictory concepts, asking, “What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?” The phrase and its formulation are believed to have emerged in the 20th century as a means of illustrating philosophical notions related to infinity, absolute limits, and the nature of contradiction.

Nowadays, the irresistible force paradox is ever-so-commonly repurposed as a figure of speech for when some form of indomitable inertia comes at odds with a deterrent so deeply entrenched that it cannot be overcome—again, metaphorically speaking. 

So, what’s the basketball equivalent? I thought you’d never ask.

The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves enter a best-of-seven playoff clash with drastically different playstyles. The Nuggets are guided by the virtuosic hand of Nikola Jokic—a selfless, metric-shattering, horse-loving, one-man offensive wrecking crew. At his side stands one of the NBA’s most lethal co-stars in Jamal Murray; a prolific playoff riser who recently ripped the heart out of 90% of the city of Los Angeles twice in five games (inadvertent Clippers stray; I apologize). Add in a synergistic slew of seasoned veterans, and you have basketball’s most self-sufficient, destructive, and, yes, unstoppable force. 

A suffocating Timberwolves’ defense marks the contrary: basketball’s immovable object—the antithesis to the point-churning offensive generators dominating the pace and space era. Rudy Gobert is the head of the snake, stifling every shot in the vicinity while flexing quicker-than-advertised lateral skills on the perimeter. Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker smother the point of attack. Minnesota’s defense surrendered a league-low 108.9 points per possession in 2023-’24. 

All of this to say, stylistic contrasts between Denver and Minnesota make for a fascinating arms race between two of the league’s top units. Both teams are riding the momentum of euphoric first-round triumphs. 

Alright, enough with the theatrics and ballyhoo. I’ll refrain from hyperbole regarding Minnesota’s offense and Denver’s defense, though that matchup carries just as much weight. Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty:

The Jokic Matchup

Expect Karl-Anthony Towns to seize the primary Jokic matchup. While Towns’ unique positional size at the 4-spot is tailored to (somewhat) compete with Jokic physically, the primary intent of this maneuver is to optimize for Gobert’s defensive skillset. 

Jokic has made mincemeat out of the Gobert matchup in the past, weaponizing his lower center of gravity to bully the perennial DPOY candidate on the block while occupying his attention away from the hoop. With Towns absorbing the bulk of Jokic’s post-ups, Gobert is free to slide into the Aaron Gordon matchup—where he’ll gladly surrender open 3s in favor of patrolling the paint and side-contesting Jokic’s signature floaters and hook shots.

Only, it’s not that simple. While Gordon doesn’t pose much of a threat away from the basket, his vertical gravity along the baseline incinerates defensive shifts. Gobert will have to strike a balance between monitoring Gordon and helping at the rim—every lapse will be disciplined accordingly with misdirecting dimes and rim-rattling jams. 

This is a vicious set that punishes Minnesota for moving Gobert onto Gordon. Jokic gets downhill and occupies Gobert, then flips a no-look pass to Gordon while simultaneously pinning Gobert under the rim with his body. Strategic genius. Denver has counters for counters.

Mitigating the efficacy of Jokic-centric actions requires both on-ball resistance and backside discipline—a remarkable challenge, but one Minnesota is as well-equipped to face as anyone. 

Jokic is a back-to-the-basket, skull-smashing post operator who’s impossible to deter without extra bodies—the timing and location of the help are at Minnesota’s discretion. They typically opt to dig, rather than double, on post touches, but Jokic will decimate any semblance of strong-side help with quick kick-outs back to the entry passer.

Expect the Timberwolves to experiment with aggressive baseline help supplemented with timely rotation on the weak side. This forces the ball out of Jokic’s hands and leans on the court coverage of Minnesota’s sweltering length to combat 2v1s on the wing. The quicker the extra defender comes, the less time Denver has to execute their patented off-ball motion.

Baseline doubles likely impel Denver to relocate the Jokic post-ups to the free-throw line area. While this hijacks Minnesota’s methodology by practically nullifying the baseline altogether, the shifting geometry of the court makes it simultaneously easier for Gobert to sink on paint penetration. This chess match can unfold in multiple ways:

In case you forgot: this is the unstoppable force versus the immovable object—there is no telling who will prevail!

Minnesota’s Offensive Formula

Denver has proven itself capable of elevating its defense in high-leverage situations, and for that reason, I’m skeptical of Minnesota's consistency in generating quality looks during this series. Still, there’s a recipe for Minnesota to force Denver’s defense into rotation.

Denver doesn’t have many pressure points, but expect most actions to target Michael Porter Jr. and/or Jokic. Porter Jr. struggles to navigate actions off the ball and lacks the lateral agility to switch onto quicker guards, so Minnesota will involve him in as many flares, Spain pick n’ rolls, flex screens, and horns actions as possible. If Minnesota can transition these into favorable 2v2 scenarios with Edwards at the helm, perhaps they can strike replicable offensive success.

Even with Jokic’s defensive evolutions, he still struggles when tasked with guarding the ball in space. Minnesota will spam the Edwards-Gobert high pick n’ roll to exploit this, which Denver likely greets with deep drop coverage, sacrificing Edwards the opportunity to flow into pull-up jumpers and potentially establish an offensive rhythm. If Jokic opts for a more shallow drop, Edwards will pressure the rim at will and punish defensive shifts with inside-out playmaking to Towns and Mike Conley Jr. spotting up on the perimeter. When Gobert sits, Minnesota can force Jokic into chase perimeter shooters in super-spaced double-big lineups with Towns and Naz Reid.

But Denver’s defense will be tough to crack. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is probably the primary Edwards matchup, but Gordon’s physicality could potentially pose a more viable counter over the course of seven games. My real concerns for Minnesota derive from McDaniels, who Denver will gladly leave open on the perimeter in favor of contesting drives and swarming pick n’ rolls. He’s capable of stringing together open catch-and-shoot 3s, but that’s a gamble Denver will willingly take. This also means that Caldwell-Pope, Murray, and Gordon can amplify their on-ball defensive pressure on the perimeter with the fallback option of collective collapses surrendering kickouts to McDaniels.

The Verdict

Tim Connolly constructed the most well-oiled offensive machine in basketball, only to unveil an assemble of savvy, long-limbed Avengers tailor-made to give them hell. I’m sure he’ll quietly bask in his team-building prowess all series long—deservingly so.

But as impressive as this Timberwolves squad may be, proven execution prevails more often than not. Denver will hammer some blend of the Murray-Jokic pick n’ roll and Jokic post-ups down the stretch, and regardless of defensive counters, it's probably going to generate decent looks. I don’t have the same faith in the maturity of Minnesota’s late-game offense, nor do they have equivalent talent to fall back on.

This will be an incredible series. I’ll give Minnesota the slight edge as the better first-40-minute team, but ultimately, I trust Denver to close games when it matters.

Give me Denver in 7.